Business Agility in the Age of AI

Waterfall vs. Agile by (football) example

The waterfall fairy tale

Mr. Blažević, the coach, is smiling all the time. All the players are relaxed and totally convinced to win tomorrow. It’s been calculated.

The Coach:
“Guys, I calculated it all, compared position by position. We’re much stronger. We’re 43% stronger than Japan.
In fact, I decided to give Šuker and Prosinečki a rest so they would be 7% in better shape for the next game. The calculations show that without them, we’re still 17% stronger than Japan.
Who is for billiard?”

Epilogue:
Everything went smoothly and was predictable. Croatia wins 0:2.

The reality show

It’s two days before the game. Slaven Bilić, a famous Croatian player and a future coach, sits on the bench after an exhaustive workout. Droplets of sweat drip from his face to the floor. He is earnest and careful, just like the other players around him.

The Coach:
“Guys, every game at this level is complex and unpredictable. We passed a lot of scenarios and trained like there’s no tomorrow, but you’re experienced enough to know that it can take any direction during a game. We have an initial plan, but we will adjust to any situation! This is our strength!
We have to give our best because they will, for sure!”

Epilogue:
It was a hard and exhaustive game with almost no chance to score.
Mr. Blažević changed the tactics several times during a game. He even took out one of the best players, Prosinečki, to change the formation in 72′.
A future Golden boot award winner Davor Šuker hardly scored a winning goal in 82′. Croatia wins a challenging game 0:1.

That’s how it goes for real.

The choice

Waterfall project management is all about pretending that everything is known and nothing will change. It’s about blindly following upfront plans based on “calculations”. It can work for some simple work, but not when there are a lot of variables and uncertainty. Predictability here is a fairy tale.

Do you find the Waterfall example above funny and not realistic? Then why do you think that such an approach is suitable for your company?
The waterfall example is as ridiculous as doing it in your company for some big projects. The only difference is that in a football game, everything is fully transparent.

On the other side, Agile is not a silver bullet but is a much better choice to “sail stormy waters.” We constantly adapt our behavior to win.

What is your choice? And why?